Come late winter, the Old Dominion’s turkey enthusiasts’ thoughts turn to the Youth and Apprentice Spring Turkey Hunting Weekend on April 5 and 6 and opening day of Spring Turkey Season on April 12. Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) Upland Game Biologist Mike Dye offers this forecast.
“Overall, I expect a pretty good season in 2025, but I don’t think it will be as good as our record year in 2023 or our second-best harvest in 2024,” he said.
As turkey hunters know, the hatch two years prior to the season is one of the best predictors of the overall harvest. That’s because two-year-old toms typically constitute most of the harvest. Statewide, the poults per hen (PPH) in 2023 was just 1.89.
“Ideally, we feel pretty comfortable about turkey numbers if the PPH is over 2.0 and the long-term average has been about 2.5,” continued Dye. “The productivity during the last 10-plus years has been below average, with occasional good years such as 2021 (which was partially responsible for the record harvest in 2023). The lower productivity is a bit concerning but may be caused by differences in the way we have collected the data, as that has changed over the years.
“This isn’t just a Virginia situation, either. Across much of the Southeast, there has been a general decline in poult production. The biologists in individual states and the National Wild Turkey Federation, along with researchers at numerous universities, are trying to figure out the reasons why this has been happening. Is the decline just a normal response to the carrying capacity of the landscape or is something else going on? There are no solid answers yet,” said Dye.
Dye noted that when turkeys are reintroduced to an area, a population boom often occurs. That’s what happened in Virginia and other Southeast states in past decades and is happening now in New England states like Vermont and New Hampshire, where turkeys are seemingly everywhere.
Looking closer at the 2023 hatch, the PPH percentages were as follows: Region 1/Tidewater: 2.05, Region 2/South Piedmont: 1.48, Region 3/Southwest: 2.03, Region 4/North Mountain: 1.78, and Region 5/North Piedmont: 1.91. Dye said there are several takeaway points from these percentages. In recent years, the Tidewater region typically has boasted some of the best turkey hunting in the state. Also, though some improved poult production has occurred in the North Mountain region (Allegheny, Bath, and Highland counties, for example) turkey numbers have still not recovered as much as DWR would like.
To compare, the PPH statewide in 2024 was 2.1, which could mean that in some places this spring, more jakes will be present than 2-year-old toms. Region 4 recorded a PPH of 2.8 and the North Piedmont 2.7… certainly good news for those parts of the state in the coming year.
This spring marks the fourth year of partial-season, all-day hunting—running this year from April 28 through the last day of the season on May 17. Dye does not see Virginia going to all-day hunting for the entire season in the near future.
“At this point, staff feels comfortable keeping the season as it is now,” he said. “Our main concern about all-day hunting is illegal harvesting of hens. But by the third week of the season, hens are more likely to be nesting and fewer of them will be out and about.”
Finally, the biologist encourages veteran hunters to take youth or novice hunters afield on the Youth and Apprentice weekend. Last year, 905 turkeys were tagged on the Youth and Apprentice weekend, which was four percent of the harvest for the entire season. To compare, 2,962 gobblers were checked in on the traditional opening day—14 percent of the entire harvest. The Youth and Apprentice weekend remains a great opportunity to get new, aspiring hunters out into the field.
Bruce Ingram, Virginia DWR